Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
