A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
